The market knows best. And by market, I mean financial market. Like stocks and currencies. It’s designed to intentionally confuse. That’s what I believe. The market is very cunning – it always moves in such a way that the majority is always wrong. It’s what also makes the market so hard to predict.
Speculating in the markets is a humbling experience, everyone will tell you. It’s very, very difficult to beat the market, and no matter what happens, how many millions my investments and trades make, I will never underestimate or disrespect it.
But I do know how to beat the stock market. It’s very easy. Here’s how:
- Do the exact opposite to what everyone else is doing. Run against the herd.
- Make sure you have better information than everybody else. That way, you’ll always comes out on top over the long run.
Poker is a market. It’s not so immediately obvious, but it is…just like the stock market. And just as liquid. There must be up to 500,000 people playing at any one time. Hundreds of tables on dozens of sites. All games, abilities, stakes, limit and tournaments all swamped with players. Many underage. Many beginners.
Instead of trading financial instruments, players trade their cards with one another, trying to get the best value they can from the cards they’re dealt. It’s brilliant. A brand new profit vehicle, and yet still so undiscovered.
Therein lies the key to my system. I figured out how to apply these winning stock market principles to Poker:
As with any form of risky proposition…poker, stocks, sports gambling…if you play the same way as everyone, you lose. It’s a fact.
Don’t get me wrong. I’m not saying that my opponents are all bad players. I never underestimate my opponents, because I’ve found most players to be very skillful. Of course, there are bad poker players out there, but not many. Most players are very good…and they play the same “good” poker I used to play. It’s a solid game. “Tight-aggressive” it’s called in the textbooks. (Tight aggressive is a way of playing where you generally fold all but the best cards. When you do get the goods, you play them aggressively.)
But as good as it is, it’s a losing system. You gradually bleed to death…a slow painful, grinding death. The explanation is simple. It violates both of my winning principles above: Too many people play the same way and it’s not a strong information-gathering strategy. Let me explain. A tight aggressive player usually plays without much consideration to other people’s cards – he waits until he has a very strong hand, and then bets regardless of what is happening around him, on the assumption that he must be favorite to win the hand.
My system works in precisely the opposite way. I assume I have the best hand every hand, and only fold when I think I’m beaten.
Of course, it’s a little more complicated than that, but bear with me, and everything will become clear…
(This one of my running online poker musings. You can learn more about me right here.)